Absolutely honoured to be authorized to publish the english version of a real excellent study on new WR of Dennis Kimetto by spanish statistician (AEEA) and writer Miguel Calvo.Thanks to him and to spanish online site FOROATLETISMO for let me use their ORIGINAL ARTICLE
KIMETTO´S NEW WORLD RECORD: THE OLD LIMIT OF TWO HOURS AND THREE MINUTES
“Where does the power come from, to see the race to its end? From within”
Eric Liddell, Chariots of Fire.
1.- Berlin. Berlin again.
The goal next to the Brandemburgo Gate continues to increase her mythical. There has been five World Records in the last eight years. The last six world records (all since Khalid Khannouchi run 2h05:38 in 2002 London Marathon) were achieved here (Berlin is privileged to have seen seven World Record since 1998). And seven of the eleven fastest marathon histories have run in Berlin (the top four always included).
Top ten average for Berlin Marathon is 2h03:55, nearly a minute ahead of Dubai (2h04:46), Rotterdam (2h04:52), Chicago and London (both with 2h05:04).
2.- The old limit of two hours and three minutes.
With his new World Record of 2h02:57, Dennis Kimetto (Kenya, 01.22.1984) is the first man to break the barrier of two hours and three minutes.
Five men (according to the IAAF official ranking, without Boston) have run in less than 2h03 since Gebrselassie broke the limit in 2008: Dennis Kimetto, Emmanuel Mutai and Wilson Kipsang twice each; Patrick Makau and Haile once each.
In addition, Geoffrey Mutai (2h03: 02) and Moses Mosop (2h03: 06) appeared in Boston 2011, but these marks are not accepted by the IAAF as a record. Now, Kimetto marathon is the World Record and the fastest race in history.
Table 1: Sub 2h04 All-time (IAAF)
Dennis Kimetto (KEN)
Emmanuel Mutai (KEN)
Wilson Kipsang (KEN)
Patrick Makau (KEN)
Wilson Kipsang (KEN)
Dennis Kimetto (KEN)
Emmanuel Mutai (KEN)
Haile Gebrselassie (ETH)
3.- New horizons: 2:54 minutes per kilometer.
Table 2: Average speed last four world records
Average Speed (km/hora)
With the border of 2 hours and 3 minutes demolished, a new horizon opens: average pace of 2:54 minutes per kilometer. Since 2008, in six magic years, we have been talking a pace of 2:56 to 2:55, and now 2:54.
If someone wants to beat the world record in the future will have to run at that pace, or what is the same, running each 10 kilometers in 29 minutes. In short, a marathon at an average 2:54 pace would lead to 2h02:23, that is emerging as the new barrier on the horizon for the super-class that gets almost reduce one second per kilometer (and each closer to a speed of 21 kilometers per hour).
4.- Kimetto´s Berlin Marathon: negative splits.
A look at key indicators of the 2014 marathon in Berlin show the main feature of the race that led to Dennis Kimetto to break the world record: a perfect race from less to more, with a second half marathon faster than the first and 10 kilometers splits faster each time.
Half marathon splits: 61:45 / 61:12 (the second half was 33 seconds faster)
10km splits: 29:24 / 29:11 / 29:02 / 28:52 (always decreasing and the last one 32 seconds faster the first)
Negative splits are one of the most important features of the Kimetto´s race and are further accentuated when compared to the last three world records. Among them, only Gebrselassie in 2008 got a second faster than the first half, but none of them made the descent time in each part of 10 km has been achieved in the new world record of 2014.
Kimetto group came more rested in the middle of the race that Makau and Kipsang (the first ten kilometers has been the slowest of the four), and from there, kilometers 30 to 40 were the most fast in recent records, with great force that characterizes Kimetto (fantastically led by pacemakers and splendidly spurred by Mutai and Kamworor from kilometer 30)
Even these Kimetto final splits are the two fastest of all in the last four world records: 29:02 (20km-30km) and the madness of 28:52 between 30km and 40km. It is the first time in the last great record when it comes down to 29 minutes... at the last part!
Table 3: Half Marathon in the last four world records
First Half Marathon
Last Half Marathon
Table 4: 10km splits in the last four World Records
5.- Kimetto´s World Record vs Kipsang´s World Record
Table 5: Kimetto (Berlin 2014) vs Kipsang (Berlin 2013)
* WR km30 (Emmanuel Mutai), km35 & km40
José Luis Hernández RFEA
We compare Kimetto race with the previous World Record of Kipsang, which gives us the rest of the elements that characterize the last race we've seen in Berlin.
Kimetto ran slower at the beginning (at km15 it came with 25 seconds delay compared to the record of Kipsang). From there the speed was increasing (they came with only 11 seconds late in the half marathon) and after running a very fast 20-25 kilometers were 5 seconds ahead. With fantastic pacemakers, they went to kilometer 30 with 23 seconds ahead.
Emmanuel Mutai, very brave, put on the head of the race, and we could see the attacks of the favorites, including Kamworor, who struggled to win. As one of the key elements of the record, the attacks were so hard they were run those 5 kilometers in 14:09 (it is the 5 kilometers split fastest of the last world record), which made at kilometer 35 had the greatest advantage with Kipsang (49 seconds).
Would they have power to end? The strength of Kimetto and quality of Mutai made it possible, and although the final 7.195m were slower (Kimetto with 21:08, Kipsang with 20:47, and Haile with 20:54), both endured without collapsing and finished the marathon faster Kipsang).
Table 6: 5km Splits in the last four World Record
Figure 1: The last 4 WR face to face
Note: Orange 14:30 (2:54)
In the figure number 1 we can see the slow start of the Kimetto´s Worl Record; more speed between 15 and 20 kilometers (14:26) which offset the delay; the precision of pacing between 20 and 30 kilometers (steady pace 2:54); amazing kilometers between 30 and 35 (2:50 14:30); and the Kimetto final strength, which although slower than ran Kipsang, there wasn´t collapse that would have ruined the world record (it was more what was improved between 30 and 35 km that what was lost from 35 to 40).
6.- Pacemakers… Good job!
Berlin legend continues with his favorite ingredients: one (but not excessive) select group of potential record holder, excellent circuit, perfect weather, and pacemakers absolutely perfect (what differs greatly from what we are seeing the last years, for example, in London).
In a great job, pacemakers (Geoffrey Ronoh, Bernard Kigen and Wilfred Kirwa) ran with the perfect and steady pace marathon needed. Running from less to more, the half marathon was passed in 61:45 (exactly 61:40/61:45 that had been requested) and then they were increasing the speed to get to kilometer 30 with 1h27:38 (22 seconds below 1h28 which had been agreed and that supposed world record for Emmanuel Mutai at the kilometer 30).
The first part of the marathon clearly had a slower pace (a little more rested, best feelings ...). Then they increased the pace and half marathon spent with only 11 second delay on Kipsang, and at kilometer 25 was reached with a lead of 5 seconds.
In short, and where pacemakers are actually judged, at kilometer 30 was reached in 1h27: 38, with 22 seconds less than requested and 23 seconds Kipsang below. After Kimetto ran the last part of the marathon at the same time Kipsang, but differently, because ran much faster from 30km to 35km and held in the last 7.195m where Kipsang made the difference.
Mutai and Kimetto had the great merit of supporting this virtual race from kilometer 30 to Kipsang. Pacemakers had already left them 23 seconds better, which ultimately were instrumental in the 26 seconds that the previous world record was improved.
7.- 14:09 between 30 and 35 kilometers… Amazing!
Pacemakers said goodbye at 35 kilometer and from that point there was another of the most characteristic features of the Berlin marathon. Between 30 and 35 kilometers we saw the 5km split faster all the latest world records. 14:09, which means those five kilometers were run at an average of 2:50 minutes per kilometer.
Table 7: Berlin 2014, from 30km to 35km
Average Kms 30-35
8.- The finish: Kimetto and the strength.
In the latter part of the marathon a year ago we saw the best Wilson Kipsang. Could Kimetto and Mutai endure after a split of 14:09?
Kimetto ran the last 7.195 meters in 21:08 (14:42 + 6:28), slower than Kipsang (20:47 = 14:36 + 6:11) but enough to make the world record and even a progressive improvement in all 10 kilometer´s split. The kilometers between 35 and 40 were slower, but the fantastic 30-35 km offset this loss of time.
Curiously, the final of Kimetto in Berlin 2014 (14:42 + 6:28) was the same as an end in Chicago 2013 (14:40 + 6:27).
Kimetto (and Mutai) managed to hold on. His splits have always been negative and even the 30-40 km´s split has been the fastest of all the latest world record at that point.
9.- Emmanuel Mutai: the eternal second.
Like last year in Chicago, Dennis Kimetto and Emmanuel Mutai have returned to fight for glory with the same result. In 2013 Mutai finished second with a time of 2h03:52 which made him the second best of the whole story (and fourth all-time on the official IAAF rankings). Now the fate has been even more ruthless Mutai, who has returned to finish second with a time of 2h03:13. A time that would have helped him beat the world record if he had not been Kimetto before him, and returns to reserve the "honor" of being the second fastest all-time and the second on the official IAAF ranking.
Worthy successor to the cyclist Raymond Poulidor, Emmanuel Mutai finished 16 marathons since his debut in 2007. He won two of them (London 2011 and Amsterdam 2007), but has been 7 times second (Berlin 2014, Chicago 2013, London 2013, New York 2011, New York 2010, London 2010 and the world championship in Berlin 2009). The glory of the winner flees him, but as Poulidor always have the irresistible charm of the eternal second.
10.- The golde age of the road.
Road running live the Golden era. The growing interest of the sponsors (attached to the running boom) makes money is more and more on the road, becoming the major attraction for the most promising young African runners, and the records and the marks don´t stop falling.
But the fact that it seems that we are getting used to a relentless succession of world records should not do unless we value what we are seeing, and we take each new feat with the prospect (and magnitude) is required.
There was a time when nobody believed it could lose the four-minute mile. And now, one of the main discussions revolves around 2h00. Certain that the man continues to break his own borders., but with the necessary calm. We are 3 minutes from the barrier, and the path to go down many seconds is too long.
Dom´t worry. Don´t be rushed. Enjoy the show we're watching.
If that were not enough, next week we have the legend Kenenisa Bekele (along Eliud Kipchoge) in Chicago, and next month Kipsang, Geoffrey Mutai and company fight in New York with other limits. In 2015 we will have to them trying a new world record, and new and better prepared runners arrive. Enjoy the show.