martedì 30 settembre 2014

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domenica 28 settembre 2014

THE “2:03:00 WALL” FINALLY FALLS DOWN by COACH RENATO CANOVA


THE “2:03:00 WALL” FINALLY FALLS DOWN
Another historical performance today in Berlin, the “Golden City” for Marathon.  In this city, the wall of 2:05:00 fell down exactly 11 years ago (28 September 2003), destroyed by Paul Tergat (2:04:55), and 5 years later (28 September 2008) Haile Gebrselassie destroyed the wall of 2:04:00 with 2:03:59.   The last two WR happened in Berlin again : 2:03:38 on 25 September 2011 (Patrick Makau), and 2:03:23 on 29 September 2013 (Wilson Kipsang).
Berlin put together the most important components for a WR : the course is very fast (but other marathon can offer the same situation), is one of the Majors, there is perfect organization (looking at right pacers for a WR), and, may be the most important point, in 90% of the occasions, there is a perfect weather for running a marathon.
This year, without top Championships, was also the ideal time for trying to better the WR.  But, of course, the first requirement for achieving the goal is to have big champions, in perfect shape.
Dennis Kimetto and Emmanuel Mutai were in this perfect shape, since their preparation didn’t have to face any problem, and they knew very well the reaction of their body at the requested speed, because last year had a spectacular head-to-head under 2:04:00 in Chicago.
The pacers worked very well, with a perfect rhythm in the first 30 km, bringing the two best athletes of the race at the same time of the WR of Makau, but with good advantage comparing with the split of Wilson Kipsang last year.
But it was between 30 and 40 km that both the athletes did something ecceptional : 28’51” for Kimetto (14’09” + 14’42”) and 28’58” for Emmanuel (14’11” + 14’48”).   The final of Kimetto was still very good (6’28” for the last 2195m), only a little slower Mutai (6’37”).
With them, for 33 km, there was the World HM Champion , Geoffrey Kipsang, too.  But, how happened in all his previous marathon, he was not able to maintain the same pace after 33 km, and his final was really difficult.
The best Ethiopian in the race was Abera Kuma, running the second marathon of his life.  He, coming from good performances on track (his PB are 13’ in 5000m and 26’52” in 10000m), didn’t have too many problems to stay with the leaders till 30 km (incidentally, the split of 1:27’37” is the new WR, and 3 guys had the same time, so we have to see who can be the holder of the new WR), and, when felt his body in trouble, was able to reduce his speed for not risking to finish the fuel before the finish line, so during the last km could reach and overtake Geoffrey Kipsang, running slowly because without energy.
Here there are the splits of the top 4 athletes  :

Kimetto
E. Mutai
Kuma
G. Kipsang
5 km
14’42”  -  14’42”
14’42”  -  14’42”
14’42”  -  14’42”
14’42”  -  14’42”
10 km
29’24”  -  14’42”
29’24”  -  14’42”
29’24”  -  14’42”
29’25”  -  14’43”
15 km
44’10”  -  14’46”
44’09”  -  14’45”
44’09”  -  14’45”
44’10”  -  14’45”
20 km
58’36”  -  14’26”
58’35”  -  14’26”
58’35”  -  14’26”
58’35”  -  14’25”
HM
1:01’45”
1:01’46”
1:01’45”
1:01’45”
25 km
1:13’08”  -  14’32”
1:13’08”  -  14’33”
1:13’08”  -  14’33”
1:13’08”  -  14’33”
30 km
1:27’38”  -  14’30”
1:27’37”  -  14’29”
1:27’37”  -  14’29”
1:27’37”  -  14’29”
35 km
1:41’47”  -  14’09”
1:41’48”  -  14’11”
1:42’47”  -  15’10”
1:41’57”  -  14’20”
40 km
1:56’29”  -  14’42”
1:56’36”  -  14’48”
1:59’00”  -  16’13”
1:58’33”  -  16’36”
Final
2:02’57”  -  6’28”  
2:03’13”  -  6’37”
2:05’56” -  6’56”
2:06’39”  -  8’06”


The average for Kimetto is 2’54”8 per km.  Since this means running 10000m in 29’08”, it’s clear that, in the future, everybody who wants to attack the WR needs to have a plan for running at 2’54”, that means 29’ every 10 km.
In my opinion, is not far the day we can see some athlete running 4 times 29’ or less (1:56’ after 40 km) for finishing at the same speed in 6’23”  (in this case, WR in 2:02’23”).
The revolution during the last 6 years in Marathon is something that, some year ago, was clearly not possible to think possible.   When exactly 6 years ago Haile was able to run under 2:04:00, only him, plus Paul Tergat and Sammy Korir, were under 2:05:00 in the all-time list.   Now, in 6 years, other 26 athletes were able running under this limit (somebody more than one time), that at the moment can be considered the limit of international excellence.
Here you can see the list of the top 30 marathon runners all-time  :
2:02:57 WR (1) Dennis  Kimetto KEN Berlin 28 Sep 2014
2:03:02 (1) Geoffrey  Mutai KEN Boston 18 Apr 2011
2:03:06 (2) Moses  Mosop KEN Boston 18 Apr 2011
2:03:13 (2) Emmanuel  Mutai KEN Berlin 28 Sep 2014
2:03:23 WR (1) Wilson  Kipsang KEN Berlin 29 Sep 2013
2:03:38 WR (1) Patrick  Makau KEN Berlin 25 Sep 2011
2:03:59 WR (1) Haile  Gebrselassie ETH Berlin 28 Sep 2008
2:04:05 (2) Eliud  Kipchoge KEN Berlin 29 Sep 2013
2:04:23 (1) Ayele  Abshero ETH Dubai 27 Jan 2012
2:04:27 (1) Duncan  Kibet KEN Rotterdam 05 Apr 2009
2:04:27 (2) James  Kwambai KEN Rotterdam 05 Apr 2009
2:04:32 (1) Tsegaye  Mekonnen ETH Dubai 24 Jan 2014
2:04:38 (1) Tsegaye  Kebede ETH Chicago 07 Oct 2012
2:04:45 (1) Lelisa  Desisa ETH Dubai 25 Jan 2013
2:04:48 (1) Yemane  Adhane ETH Rotterdam 15 Apr 2012
2:04:48 (2) Berhanu  Shiferaw ETH Dubai 25 Jan 2013
2:04:49 (3) Tadesse  Tola ETH Dubai 25 Jan 2013
2:04:50 (2) Dino  Sefir ETH Dubai 27 Jan 2012
2:04:50 (2) Getu  Feleke ETH Rotterdam 15 Apr 2012
2:04:52 (2) Feyisa  Lilesa ETH Chicago 07 Oct 2012
2:04:52 (4) Endeshaw  Negesse ETH Dubai 25 Jan 2013
2:04:53 (3) Gebrziabher  Gebremariam ETH Boston 18 Apr 2011
2:04:53 (5) Bernard  Koech KEN Dubai 25 Jan 2013
2:04:54 (3) Markos  Geneti ETH Dubai 27 Jan 2012
2:04:55 WR (1) Paul  Tergat KEN Berlin 28 Sep 2003
2:04:55 (2) Stanley  Biwott KEN London 13 Apr 2014
2:04:56 (2) Sammy  Korir KEN Berlin 28 Sep 2003
2:04:56 (4) Jonathan  Maiyo KEN Dubai 27 Jan 2012
2:04:58 (4) Ryan  Hall USA Boston 18 Apr 2011
2:05:04 (3) Abel  Kirui KEN Rotterdam 05 Apr 2009


The distribution between Kenyan and Ethiopian is well balanced (in top 30 we find 15 kenyan and 14 ethiopian, the only athlete of different Country is Ryan Hall), but when we look at the top 10, we can find a clear dominance of Kenya (8 vs 2).


About the site of the performances, 10 were in Dubai, 8 in Berlin, 5 in Rotterdam, 4 in Boston, 2 in Chicago and 1 in London.  But the consistency of the athletes achieving these performances is different, if we look at the names running a top time in Dubai or in Berlin : many athletes with their best in Dubai never were (or are) able to run again close to their PB, showing that the conditions of Dubai are particularly favorable for great times, but the competition itself doesn’t contribute very much to the grow of the athletes.  I have several athletes in this list, and honestly many of them have their second best performance very far from their PB (among all the athletes running their best in Dubai, till now only Ayele Abshero showed good consistency, and is on the road of a continuous improvement, while we need to wait for Tsegaye Mekonnen, still very young and with a training looking more for building his future than for shining in the present).


Who can have the technical possibility to attack this record, may be next year ?


The most qualified is Kimetto himself, and probably Kenenisa Bekele, if in Chicago can show he starts to better know marathon.  Emmanuel Mutai doesn’t finish to improve his best, also if already on the top from long time (won silver medal in WCh 2009), and can be a serious candidate to run under 2:03:00.  Wilson Kipsang is still at his top, and can look for becoming holder of the WR again.  Among the bests, Moses Mosop, Geoffrey Mutai and Patrick Makau seem to have had too many physical problems during the last two years, and this can say their body is no more able to sustain the volume and the intensity of training they need for running under 2:03:00.


But it’s a fact that the world of marathon changed completely during the last 6 years : different training, different stimuli and, essentially, different mentality.  Young athletes approaching marathon today know only THIS type of marathon, this training (harder than in the past) and this interpretation (more aggressive than in the past).  They don’t put any limit in their mind, well knowing that, if you want to win, you need to be THERE, with the leading group, without fearing to finish the fuel after 30 km only (also if frequently this is what happens), because today NEVER we see some athlete finishing in top 5 in any marathon coming from behind, like many years ago could happen (think at the victories of Orlando Pizzolato in NY, or Gelindo Bordin in Boston, when after HM they were not in top 20…).

Today, everybody runs fast in training for being ready to run fast in competition.  Sometimes they are able of unbelievable performances, sometimes they go to burn themselves in training, however this aggressive interpretation is the only way for reaching the top.   

RENATO CANOVA